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FEP Analysis and Markov Chains

Energy Procedia. Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies 9, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-9), 16–20 November 2008, Washington DC, USA
Nepveu, M., Yavuz, F. and David, P.


Uncertainties related with underground CO2 storage play a vital role in risk assessment with respect to Carbon storage and capture projects (CCS). The main purpose of risk assessment is to determine a qualitative and quantitative picture associated with hazardous processes or events.The first step then focuses on a comprehensive inventory of risk factors. The inventory of the risk factors are stored in FEP (Features, Events and Process) database. The properties of the geological system and natural or human-induced processes represent the future system properties which is explained in scenario analysis supported with FEP database.

The future evolution of system properties is analyzed by an interaction matrix describing the interaction of events and processes dynamic risk factors (EPs) in a cause-effect relationship with static factors (features). Such a task draws heavily on various expert opinions.

Here we propose, describing the interaction of FEPs within the framework of (discrete time) Markov Chains. In such an approach various states are defined which can evolve from one another. The probabilistic evolution of the system can be followed, and conclusions can be drawn as to visit times in the various states, and the most likely ultimate fate of a system in dependence of initial state. This approach offers a substitute for scenario-thinking, as it describes the evolution as all possible follow-ups of relevant physical processes and events. The machinery of Markov Chains gives a tool for describing interaction trees which can not be grasped without it. Thereby it is of assistance in making the “completeness problem” a little less striking.